Analysis: Odds are in Romney’s Favor – Part I
By Jimmy Sengenberger at July 26, 2012 | 5:00 am | Print
Don’t let the mainstream media fool you: Mitt’s on the verge of taking back the White House – but complacency would be our undoing.
On a regular basis, the mainstream media has tried to paint a false picture of the state of the U.S. Presidential race. In their eyes, the “likeable” Obama is seen as the favorite, while “out of touch” Mitt Romney is struggling to connect with the “average voter.” Many on the Left are even stating that Obama is “leading in all the polls.” Yet recent data suggests that this is not only abjectly false – but that the trend is leaning ever in Romney’s favor.
Let’s start with the New York Times of all places, which on July 18 had no choice but to report the blooming facts: Obama’s disapproval is up, his favorability ratings are down, and his numbers against Romney are shrinking.
In a reversal from the Times/CBS Poll in April, more Americans say they disapprove of the way Mr. Obama is handling his job, 46 percent, than say they approve of it, 44 percent, although the difference is within the poll’s margin of sampling error.
Forty-five percent say they would vote for Mr. Romney if the election were held now and 43 percent say they would vote for Mr. Obama. When undecided voters who lean toward a particular candidate are included, Mr. Romney has 47 percent to Mr. Obama’s 46 percent.
The poll includes a drop in Mr. Obama’s favorability ratings, with 36 percent saying they viewed him favorably and 48 percent saying they did not. In April, 42 percent expressed a favorable opinion of him and 45 percent an unfavorable one.
Asked which candidate they believed would do a better job handling the economy and unemployment, 49 percent said Mr. Romney, 41 percent Mr. Obama.
The results drawn from the NY Times/CBS News poll reveal several key weaknesses for any incumbent president:
- Any president whose approval rating is sitting at below 50% is in weak shape; this is especially so when disapproval outweighs approval.
- With several months to go, Romney, who has been painted as an “outsourcer-in-chief,” a slimy business dealer, and a failed governor, is beginning to hammer home a lead in a poll which has not shown him to be on top for very long, revealing that Obama’s feeble yet consistent attacks against him are not doing the trick.
- Obama’s favorability numbers are staggering for any sitting president. In just three sort months, his negatives have moved from a -3 point disadvantage for Obama to a -12 point disadvantage – a substantial statistical decline. A decline in favorability of 6 points isn’t just “a drop,” especially when coupled with a 3% increase in unfavorable ratings. By any measure, Obama is taking heavy blows.
- Finally, the most critical issue in this election is doubtlessly the economy, and with it unemployment. Obama’s signature attack against Romney – his tenure at Bain Capital – has backfired. After a few months now of heavy assault, Romney still leads Obama in handling the economy by a whopping 8 points. That’s no laughing matter for any incumbent when the majority of Americans are going to be voting with their pocket books – especially with unemployment still above the 8% we were promised it would not go if the Stimulus was passed.
Next, Gallup’s most recent poll, taken on July 19-22, also suggests huge weaknesses for Obama in a year when enthusiasm is crucial to victory:
They suggest a shift in Republicans’ and Democrats’ orientation to voting in the coming presidential election compared with the last two, with Republicans expressing more voting enthusiasm. The current 51% to 39% Republican advantage in voter enthusiasm is slightly larger than the 53% to 45% GOP advantage Gallup measured in February of this year.
Though voter enthusiasm is not as significant a measure in presidential elections as in midterm, an enthusiasm gap of -12 for Democrats is harmful, especially when the president must count on cultivating as much support and voter turnout as he possibly can given how fired up conservatives and Republicans are in the wake of the radical policies of the Obama Administration. This is particularly so given the Supreme Court’s decision upholding Obamacare.
Finally, polling data from Rasmussen Reports also demonstrate key indicators in Romney’s favor. Given the factors already discussed, the below data is self-explanatory:
The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Wednesday shows Mitt Romney attracting 47% of the vote, while President Obama earns support from 44%. Five percent (5%) prefer some other candidate, and four percent (4%) are undecided.
A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey of American Adults shows that just 31% believe the U.S. economy will be stronger in one year. Thirty-five percent (35%) predict a weaker economy by next year, and 18% more say it will be about the same. Seventeen percent (17%) are not sure.
Thirty percent (30%) of Likely U.S. Voters now say the country is heading in the right direction, according to a new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey taken the week ending Sunday, July 22 [emphasis added to underscore likely voters].
With numbers like these, Obama’s most assuredly got his work cut out for him, and conservatives have reason to be extremely positive about the outcome of this election. However, we must not allow ourselves to become cocky and complacent in the face of such favorable data – especially in key battleground states like Colorado, Ohio, North Carolina, and Florida. Though odds are still in our favor in those states (as will be described in Part II), conservatives and Republicans have got to get out, pound the pavement, and work hard.
We have a ripe chance to take our country back. It all starts now, with each and every one of us.